New Book Analysis and Notes

Finished reading Every War Must End. My notes and analysis here. In short, the book is brilliant and everyone should read it.

The first follow up book I'd like to read is the Willis book referenced on the failure of British democracy during WWI. How relevant is that today?

Good Quote

From "Every War Must End" page 61

The English language is without a word of equally strong opprobrium to designate acts that can lead to the destruction of one's government and one's country, not by fighting too little, but by fighting too much or too long. "Adventurism" - much too weak a word - is perhaps the best term to describe this "treason of the hawks."

The more I read this book the more mind-boggling it is that Ikle ran with neocons.

Review Excerpt: Fog of War

Some thoughts on Every War Must End.

I've heard the fog of war in reference to bureaucratic screw-ups, or as an excuse for friendly fire and other tactical mishaps. Here Ikle uses it to refer to the uncertainty at the top.

Strategic decisions have to incorporate a ton of data: friendly and enemy troop strength, reserves, and the potential for outside parties to intervene. Obviously a great deal of this information is unknown, it must be estimated based on a variety of sources. That layer of interpretation is the true fog, data interpretation follows self reinforcing assumptions. If we are tired they must be tired because ultimately we must win, therefore we will win. This ties in with the tendency for politicians to be to aggressive (if they lose a war they lose office- whether they leave their country intact or in ruins). Tyrants are actually more likely to make rational decisions about ending war then democracies, assuming the tyrant stays in power. Saddam Hussein in the first gulf war provides an apt demonstration.

Ikle makes the point that relatively little attention is paid to big picture strategy. When Rumsfeld talked to himself about whether we were creating more terrorists then we destroyed, that was taken as exceptional. Actually it was a very rational and very rarely asked question: Are we achieving our objectives?

I wonder how they process and present decision making information within the military? Any better then an insurance company?

All Wars Must End

I was sufficiently interested in Ikle's book, Every War Must End, that I picked up a copy at the library. It's a short work, about 130 pages long. The book was initially published in 1971, revised editions were put out for the Gulf War in 1991 and Gulf War II in 2005.

I was surprised how lenient the author was in discussing Gulf War II in the new preface. Powell consciously followed Ikle's work in managing the first Gulf War, and neocons consciously ignored it(and Powell) in managing the second. On the first page where I expect to see Bush and Rumsfeld being dragged over coals, there is instead a discussion of the difficulty of applying lessons learned in previous wars.

I think you get a sense of where the author's head is by comparing the first lines of the revised prefaces.
1991: "Wars transform the future."
2005: "History is a cruel tutor."

Fred Ikle

After Words 3/24/2007
Broadcast by C-Span

An interview of Fred Ikle about his most recent book, Annihilation from Within: The Ultimate Threat to Nations. The theme of the book is that the government has failed to put in place useful contingency plans for events such as a nuclear bomb, biological weapon, etc. In both cases the impact of an event could be substantially mitigated by having a contingency plan in place. For biological weapons, this would cover the mass production and distribution of appropriate vaccines. For nuclear weapons, this would cover coordination with other nations on response and doctrine. Ikle fears that a nuclear detonation could cause a world war much like an assassination set off WWI.

The problem as Fred sees it is an incompetent civil service, too many people following the letter of bureaucratic code and not getting anything done. Example: Part of the reason there are so few Arabic translators is that many translators have spent time in the Middle East, either as students or visiting family. To get a security clearance someone from the FBI has to go to the country visited to investigate what was done, who the person talked to etc. Consequently, the vetting process can take years.

Ikle cites the confirmation process as the biggest roadblock to bringing in qualified people at the top. I think that is only partly right. A bigger problem is the lack of incentives. Government (if not corrupt) does not pay well. The primary motivation of good civil servants has been a sense of duty, people felt proud of their service to their fellow citizens. Nowadays high level positions are reserved for people loyal to the President personally, there is no sense of pride or responsibility independent of politics. That discourages the most duty-minded from seeking government work, and precludes their selection for high level positions. The current scandal over federal attorney firings is a prime example.

Ikle has written at least one other highly influential work, Every War Must End back in 1971. Sadly that is as relevant today as it was then.

Ikle touches on budgeting priorities, but I think Stephen Flynn has a more complete analysis on this topic.